The safe harbour is the most useful rule in estimated tax and the least known. Meet it and no underpayment penalty applies, even if you end up owing far more than you paid during the year.
There are two ways to qualify. Pay 90% of what you actually owe for 2026, or pay 100% of what you owed last year — whichever is smaller. The second is the useful one, because last year's figure is already known and this year's is a guess.
If your prior-year adjusted gross income was above $150,000 — $75,000 filing separately — the second option rises to 110% rather than 100%. That threshold is where most people get this wrong.
Wage withholding counts toward it, and counts as paid evenly across the year regardless of when it was actually withheld. Someone with a salaried job may already satisfy the safe harbour without making any estimated payment at all.